Swedish dry bulk cargo owners risk falling behind in their climate ambitions unless policymakers create targeted incentives to replace the ageing fleet of smaller coastal vessels, a new study has warned.
The research, conducted by classification society DNV in partnership with the Responsible Shipping Initiative (RSI) and co-funded by the Swedish Transport Administration, finds that while charterers in Sweden’s short sea segment are committed to lowering emissions, the lack of regulatory and economic drivers for vessels under 5,000 GT is slowing the pace of change.
Europe’s short sea general cargo fleet is ‘ageing rapidly’ with few newbuild orders in the pipeline, the study noted. Most vessels in this category fall outside the scope of existing EU and international greenhouse gas rules, meaning owners often lack a financial incentive to invest in lower-emission tonnage.
From this year, however, vessels of all sizes calling at EU ports must report their greenhouse gas emissions under the EU Monitoring, Reporting and Verification (MRV) regime. While the data will initially be used for transparency and target-setting, the European Commission is expected to review the scope of ETS and FuelEU Maritime by 2026, raising the possibility that smaller vessels could be included later this decade.
For RSI’s members, including EFO AB, Lantmännen, SSAB, Stockholm Exergi and Södra, this presents a strategic risk regarding the need to secure transport capacity that aligns with decarbonisation targets while current market structures discourage the investment required.
Hannes von Knorring, Principal Consultant at DNV Maritime, said: ‘A major challenge in adopting low-emission fuels is the uncertainty shipowners face around long-term costs and market demands. Cargo owners may also lack insights into fuel options and their impact on supply chain emissions.
‘While the smaller vessels used by RSI members are not yet regulated they must report from this year on emissions to the EU, making it easier for cargo owners to collect data and set actionable targets. Through this project, RSI’s mission is to share knowledge, set standards, and find common ground for future shipping needs, and we are pleased to support their efforts.’
The study was divided into three work packages. The first established emissions baselines using AIS-based modelling to compensate for the lack of primary emissions data, identifying high-volume, high-emission trades where green fleet renewal could have the greatest impact.
The second examined the costs of deploying low-carbon vessels and calculated the ‘green premium’ for e-methanol-fuelled ships compared with those burning marine gas oil. Potential cost-reduction levers, including government subsidies and efficiency gains in transport logistics, were assessed, and workshops brought together shipowners and fuel suppliers.
The final stage modelled the renewal rate needed to meet climate goals, weighing this against alternative measures such as biofuel blending and operational efficiency improvements.
Sebastian Tamm, RSI Chairman and Manager of Logistics Development at EFO, commented: ‘This study highlights the need to turn long-term decarbonisation goals into actionable short-term targets for contracting. This will help with planning, investment, and compliance with new regulations.’
