ABS has warned that the International Maritime Organization’s (IMO) net zero framework is moving faster than the realities of shipping, urging regulators to pause and reconsider their approach. The call, delivered by ABS Chairman and CEO Christopher Wiernicki at London International Shipping Week, coincided with the launch of the classification society’s annual Sustainability Outlook.
‘Shipping and the IMO are on different trajectories,’ Wiernicki said. ‘There is no clear pathway for green fuel availability and scalability and infrastructure support. LNG and biofuels are mission critical to any success and should not be overlooked, over-penalised or discarded in the Net Zero regulation. Quite frankly, achieving net zero for shipping by 2050 looks like a wildcard.’
The report, Beyond the Horizon: Vision Meets Reality, highlights uneven progress across the sector. While carbon intensity has improved, absolute emissions are now around 21% above the 2008 baseline, equating to roughly 121% of the 2008 level. Compliance costs are rising sharply. ABS modelling suggests that for a vessel consuming 30 tonnes of fuel per day, operating within the EU could mean daily costs of around $15,000 in 2028, rising to about $45,000 by 2035.
The Outlook frames maritime decarbonisation as a ‘three-part calculus’: 70% fuel choice, 15% energy efficiency and 15% performance optimisation. With zero-carbon fuels unlikely to be widely available before the 2040s, ABS stresses the importance of technologies that can deliver near-term reductions.
Wiernicki noted: ‘That 30% beyond fuel is where software plays a pivotal role and, given the current scarcity of green and blue fuel variants globally, is where the most immediate and scalable gains can be achieved.’.
LNG remains central as a transitional fuel, provided methane slip is curbed, and credible bio- and e-LNG pathways emerge. Energy efficiency technologies such as air lubrication and wind propulsion are scaling rapidly, supported by favourable treatment under FuelEU Maritime. Onboard carbon capture, while not yet formally recognised in compliance regimes, is advancing towards integration and could play an important role in extending the timeframe available for decarbonisation.
Longer term, nuclear propulsion is assessed as a potential option for deployment beyond 2035. Small modular reactors could provide a near-zero emissions pathway insulated from green fuel market volatility, though regulatory, insurance and public acceptance hurdles remain considerable.
The report cautions against over-penalising transitional solutions such as LNG or over-promising on fuels that remain commercially or technically unready. Clean fuels including methanol, ammonia and hydrogen all face cost, infrastructure and safety constraints that restrict their near-term viability. The Outlook concludes: ‘The risk is clear: the industry could end up monetising carbon without actually delivering decarbonisation.’
