DNV has sharply reduced its medium-term expectations for clean hydrogen deployment, citing weaker policy support and faster-than-expected electrification across parts of the global energy system. Yet the classification society still forecasts a substantial long-term market centred on heavy industry, aviation and shipping.
In its latest Energy Transition Outlook: Hydrogen to 2060, published this week, DNV said its mid-century forecast for clean hydrogen deployment is now 45 per cent lower than projected in its 2022 outlook. The revision reflects project delays, shifting political priorities and slower implementation of support mechanisms in key markets including the US and Europe.
DNV continues to project substantial long-term growth, forecasting clean hydrogen volumes increasing ‘100-fold from today’ by 2060, supported by cumulative investment of approximately USD 3.2tn. Earlier expectations that hydrogen could decarbonise wide sections of transport, buildings and industrial heat have weakened as renewables, electrification and battery technologies have expanded more rapidly and at lower cost.
Instead, DNV sees hydrogen becoming concentrated in sectors where direct electrification remains commercially or technically difficult. Steelmaking, aviation and maritime transport are expected to account for a growing share of demand, largely through hydrogen-derived fuels rather than pure hydrogen itself.
For shipping, DNV expects demand to emerge primarily through ammonia and methanol, reflecting operational and storage constraints in long-distance marine transport. The report stated that ‘hydrogen demand from the maritime sector arises almost exclusively through fuels where hydrogen is embedded in higher-density molecules that are easier to store, transport, and bunker at scale’.
DNV forecasts differing adoption pathways for methanol and ammonia: ‘Methanol experiences earlier uptake due to easier handling and retrofitting, while ammonia becomes dominant later as a carbon-free fuel at scale,’ the report said. It added that e-methanol deployment would depend heavily on the availability of biogenic and atmospherically sourced CO2.
Uptake is expected to remain gradual through the early 2030s, constrained by vessel turnover, fuel availability and regulatory uncertainty. However, demand could accelerate later in the decade as bunkering infrastructure expands and regulatory frameworks tighten.
Maritime and aviation together are expected to become the largest source of new hydrogen demand over the long term. By 2060, DNV projects maritime transport will account for 15 per cent of global hydrogen demand, behind steelmaking and aviation at 18 per cent each.
The report also highlights China’s increasingly dominant position in the sector. DNV forecasts that 35 per cent of new hydrogen production and demand growth through 2060 will come from China, supported by large-scale renewable deployment and China’s strong domestic electrolyser manufacturing base.
DNV warns that the sector remains heavily dependent on state support. ‘Clean hydrogen remains reliant on policy, financial support, mandates, and/or a carbon price that narrows the price gap with unabated fossil hydrogen,’ the report stated. Ditlev Engel, chief executive of DNV Energy Systems, said: ‘The hydrogen industry is poised for growth, but it is a fragile stance.’
