A new report from ABS has proposed the introduction of energy-efficiency credits within the IMO’s greenhouse gas framework. It argues that efficiency measures could provide a compliance pathway while supplies of alternative fuels remain limited.
The proposal forms part of a new assessment, The ABS View: A Practical Path Forward on IMO Mid-Term Measures, which examines fuel availability, technology readiness and the cost implications associated with the IMO’s Net Zero Framework and alternative regulatory proposals.
John McDonald, chairman and CEO of ABS, said: ‘There is a clear direction set by the IMO, but the pathway forward has become increasingly complex for the industry.’
The report finds that shipping’s energy transition is likely to develop through multiple fuel and technology pathways rather than a single solution. ABS cites differences in vessel operating profiles, fuel availability and infrastructure development as key factors shaping adoption across fleet segments.
Approximately 10 per cent of global fleet tonnage is currently capable of operating on alternative fuels, with a further 6 per cent classified as fuel-ready.
ABS identifies LNG as the most established alternative marine fuel, supported by bunkering infrastructure at more than 220 ports and a network of more than 50 dedicated bunker vessels. By 2030, the LNG-capable fleet is projected to reach approximately 112m gross tonnes.
Methanol is emerging as another alternative-fuel option, supported by vessel orders and infrastructure investments. However, ABS estimates that realistically deliverable green methanol volumes could reach 6m-13m tonnes by 2030, equivalent to 13-29 per cent of announced production capacity.
Ammonia, while viewed as a potential long-term zero-carbon fuel, is expected to see limited uptake before the end of the decade. ABS projects an ammonia-capable fleet of around 2.5m gross tonnes by 2030, with bunkering infrastructure remaining at an early stage of development.
Containerships, ferries and cruise vessels operating on fixed routes may be better positioned to secure alternative fuel supplies because of their predictable trading patterns and repeated port calls, while bulk carriers and tankers operating in tramp trades face more variable trading patterns and fuel procurement requirements.
ABS said energy-efficiency measures could provide an additional compliance mechanism. It notes that fleet efficiency has improved by more than 20 per cent over the past decade and identifies further opportunities through technologies and operational measures including voyage optimisation, air-lubrication systems, wind-assisted propulsion and AI-supported routing.
ABS has proposed recognising such improvements through a system of efficiency-based credits that could be incorporated into IMO compliance mechanisms and potentially traded between fleets.
