For much of the past decade, maritime decarbonisation has been driven by technology.
The industry’s biggest questions centred on propulsion. Could methanol engines be made reliable? Would hydrogen fuel cells work at sea? Could ammonia be handled safely? Would onboard carbon capture ever become practical? Shipyards, engine manufacturers and technology developers have spent years answering these questions.
Now, having largely demonstrated that alternative-fuel ships can be built, attention is moving towards the commercial systems needed to support them.
Japan’s roughly $2.7 billion liquefied hydrogen carrier and terminal project is backed by around $2 billion in government funding through the Green Innovation Fund, with the vessel itself accounting for only a relatively small proportion of the total cost, is significant because it focuses on the wider supply chain rather than the vessel itself. The project pairs a new liquefied hydrogen carrier with the Kawasaki LH2 Terminal at Ogishima, which will house the world’s largest liquefied hydrogen storage tank alongside maritime cargo-handling, liquefaction and distribution infrastructure. Terminal and carrier are being developed simultaneously as part of what could become the world’s first integrated liquid hydrogen supply chain.
In Europe, Samskip‘s decision to bring its SeaShuttle project into the HyShip programme recognises that commercial deployment does not just depend on building hydrogen-powered vessels. Infrastructure, bunkering procedures, regulatory approval pathways and operational experience are equally, if not more, important.
In Asia, two recent announcements have highlighted how China’s green marine fuel infrastructure is evolving beyond individual demonstration projects.
In Hong Kong, Venture Energy coordinated the territory’s largest green methanol bunkering operation, linking renewable fuel production in mainland China with international shipping through an integrated regional supply chain. Almost simultaneously, the Port of Shanghai completed the first green methanol bunkering of the Arctic Tern – the first of Wallenius Wilhelmsen’s new Shaper Class car carriers, operated by EUKOR Car Carriers, the joint venture between Wallenius Wilhelmsen and Hyundai Motor Group – using locally produced green methanol supplied through SIPG Energy’s dedicated bunkering infrastructure. “Completing Arctic Tern’s first green methanol bunkering shortly after delivery is a significant milestone towards our decarbonisation ambition,” said Xavier Leroi, COO Shipping Services at Wallenius Wilhelmsen and CEO of EUKOR Car Carriers, calling it evidence that investment in fuel flexibility is “being translated into real-world operations.”
Taken together, these developments suggest China is beginning to build complementary green fuel ecosystems across multiple ports, each integrating production, logistics, storage and bunkering into commercially viable supply chains. The industry’s next challenge is no longer demonstrating that methanol-powered vessels can operate, but is in proving that reliable commercial fuel supply can scale alongside the growing fleet.
The World Bank reached much the same conclusion in its latest report on East Asia and the Pacific’s maritime sector. Its analysis suggests that the limiting factor in shipping’s energy transition is fuel availability. Current production of green methanol remains only a fraction of announced capacity. Green ammonia will compete directly with established industrial consumers, and biodiesel faces competition from aviation. Across every major fuel pathway, there is competition for the new fuels and supply is developing more slowly than the number of vessels capable of using it.
Even regulation is beginning to acknowledge this shift. The recent review of the EU Emissions Trading System focused primarily on carbon pricing, market stability and competitiveness; yet, it also reinforced a broader reality: regulation alone cannot deliver decarbonisation. Without investment in fuel production, bunkering infrastructure and ports, carbon pricing on its own cannot create fuels. Investment in fuel production, ports and infrastructure will ultimately determine whether compliance mechanisms translate into genuine emissions reductions.
Taken individually, each of these developments may appear unrelated. Together, they point towards something more significant. Shipping’s energy transition is entering a different phase and, increasingly, the questions confronting the industry are commercial and financial rather than technological:
- Who will finance new fuel production?
- Which ports will develop bunkering infrastructure first?
- How will supply chains be coordinated across multiple countries?
- Which regulatory frameworks will give investors sufficient confidence to commit capital?
These are difficult questions. LNG did not become a global marine fuel simply because ships could use it. It required decades of investment in liquefaction plants, import terminals, storage, pipelines and bunkering infrastructure before the market reached maturity. The same process is now beginning for the new low carbon fuels.
Whether the future belongs to methanol, ammonia, hydrogen or several fuels operating in parallel remains uncertain. What is becoming increasingly clear, however, is that success will depend less on identifying the right fuel than on building the commercial ecosystems capable of supporting it.
For much of the past decade, maritime decarbonisation has been measured by the number of alternative-fuel vessels entering service. Over the next decade, a more meaningful measure may be the number of ports able to bunker them, the availability of competitively priced low-carbon fuels and the confidence investors have that those supply chains can scale.
The industry’s attention has, quite rightly, focused on the ship. Increasingly, however, the decisive investments are being made ashore. The winners of shipping’s energy transition may ultimately be determined not by who builds the most advanced vessels, but by who succeeds in building the first commercially viable fuel ecosystems.
