As the 22nd Intersessional Working Group on Reduction of Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Ships (ISWG-GHG22) convenes in London to hammer out the complexities of the IMO Net Zero Framework, DNV launched the 10th edition of its annual Maritime Forecast to 2050 at SMM in Hamburg.
In this latest edition, DNV warns that as vessels being ordered today will remain in service well beyond 2050, shipowners must balance the increasingly complex mix of environmental regulations, evolving technologies and emerging fuel markets. The report highlights that while regional measures such as FuelEU Maritime and the EU Emissions Trading System are already influencing investment decisions, the long-term direction of global regulation remains uncertain. Companies must therefore plan for a range of scenarios without knowing exactly what the regulatory and fuel landscape will look like in the future.
Amid this uncertainty, the report stresses that energy efficiency represents the most immediate and commercially attractive pathway for reducing emissions. DNV argues that efficiency improvements can deliver meaningful reductions in fuel consumption and operating costs regardless of which future regulatory pathway eventually emerges.
The future of alternative fuels, however, remains far less certain. DNV notes that demand for alternative fuels will depend heavily on regulation, fuel supply growth, and cost reductions. Although technologies and fuels capable of lowering emissions continue to develop, large-scale deployment will require stronger market incentives and significant investment across the maritime value chain.
To help industry stakeholders navigate this uncertainty, the report introduces a scenario-based decision framework that allows shipowners to assess fleet strategies under different regulatory and market conditions. The approach is designed to help companies identify solutions that balance cost, risk, and operational flexibility rather than relying on a single forecast of the industry’s future.
The report concludes that shipping’s energy transition is progressing, but not along a single predictable pathway. Instead, success will depend on making robust investment decisions that remain viable across a range of potential outcomes.
Summing up the report, Cristina Saenz de Santa Maria, CEO Maritime DNV said: ‘Shipowners need strategies that deliver benefits today while remaining resilient across a range of regulatory and market outcomes.’
